N.C. —
Weather headlines for Tuesday, July 23
- There's a Level 1 risk for severe storms Tuesday.
- The heat index nears 100° Tuesday afternoon before storms arrive later on.
- There's a low-end flood threat Tuesday and Wednesday. That threat increases to a Medium level Thursday.
- Humidity levels and storm chances drop a bit this coming weekend.
Track rain with the DualDoppler5000 | Live look at NC webcams | Get WRAL alerts on your device | Report It: Share your weather photos
Forecast for next 3 days:
- Tuesday: Partly cloudy in the morning followed by Level 1 risk for storms in the afternoon and evening. High of 91.
- Tuesday night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm during the evening, then some lingering showers still possible overnight. Low of 74.
- Wednesday: Clouds increase throughout the day with more numerous storms later on. High of 90.
- Thursday: Showers and thundershowers likely. Potential for heavy rainfall. High of 82.
Higher heat expected Tuesday with Level 1 risk of severe storms
There's only about a 20% chance of rain during the morning commute on Tuesday. However, there's a Level 1 risk for severe storms.
Lunchtime should be nice and dry, allowing temperatures to heat up. Highs will be around 90 degrees but it will feel even hotter due to humidity, reaching up to 105 degrees.
In the afternoon, an isolated storm could develop around 3 p.m. or 4 p.m., but better storm chances will come between 5 and 8 p.m. –making Tuesday evening the primary storm threat.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue Tuesday night, especially before 11 p.m., with another round of rain bringing new accumulations between a quarter and half inch.
There's still an 80% chance of precipitation overnight.
What's coming the next few days?
Looking ahead at the rest of this week, we anticipate a wet and unsettled pattern with several inches of rain likely.
High temperatures will be quite manageable, staying in the mid-to-upper 80s due to the increased rain chances and cloud cover.
Later in the week, however, the flow of tropical moisture becomes a little stronger. That's why we have a higher chance of storms Wednesday and Thursday.
"A front, along with tropical moisture, will lead to more numerous showers and storms each afternoon and evening," Michaels said. "In addition to that, we’ll need to watch the threat for localized flooding."
High temperatures on Wednesday will reach the upper 80s, but we’ll only be in the low to mid 80s Thursday and Friday.
By Sunday, there are models that push the front south and give us a break from the rain and storms. We'll keep an eye on it.
The good news is at least we get a break from the intense heat for now! It's been the hottest summer on record at Raleigh-Durham International Airport, and there are more places in North Carolina close to joining that club.
Top 10 hottest: Summer (so far) is sizzling across much of the state
Ongoing heat concerns: Ways to stay cool during a sizzling summer
Heat-related illnesses remain a concern. It's important to stay hydrated, limit outdoor activities during peak heat hours, and find cooling shelters if needed.
Stay in air conditioning when possible and drink plenty of water this week. Limit strenuous, outdoor activity to early morning hours or in the evening, and plan plenty of breaks.
Those without adequate cooling at home are encouraged to find an air-conditioned, indoor refuge like a shopping mall, library or community center.
Stay safe in summer heat: Cooling stations offer relief from sweltering temps
Important: Stay updated on the latest weather conditions through the WRAL News app and take precautions to stay safe during the extreme heat.
Tropical outlook
All is quiet in the tropics for the time being.
The tropics remain quiet and are expected to stay that way through the rest of July.
7-day forecast for central NC
- Tuesday: Mostly cloudy skies and a little warmer with a few scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Highs in the low 90s.
- Wednesday: Mostly cloudy skies and very warm with scattered showers and storms possible. Highs in the low 90s.
- Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low 80s.
- Friday: Mixed clouds and sun with scattered thunderstorms. Highs in the low 80s.
- Saturday: Scattered thunderstorms. 50% chance of rain. Highs in the mid 80s.
- Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 80s.
- Monday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High of 89.
2024 Atlantic hurricane season expected to be busy
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will see 17 to 25 named storms in the Atlantic basin, according to the NOAA forecast. The agency has never predicted a higher number of storms for a season.
Hurricane season 2024: NOAA forecast is highest number of storms ever predicted
The number of named storms is significantly higher than the long-term average and moderately higher than recent 30-year averages, according to Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at N.C. State.
In 2024, NOAA researchers predict:
- 17 to 25 named storms
- 8 to 13 hurricanes
- 4 to 7 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)
The NOAA forecast is in line with earlier forecasts issued by North Carolina State and Colorado State universities.
A combination of a La Niña pattern and record warm waters in the Atlantic Ocean set up the conditions for storms to form, organize and strengthen.
